By: Eli Verschleiser
North Korea hadn’t been in the news
much lately. The world was fixated on the economic woes in China, strife
between Iran and Saudi Arabia and ongoing efforts to contain and defeat Isis.
Then came the literally earthshaking news, and that card-carrying member of the
Axis of Evil was back on our radar, having tested a hydrogen bomb believed to
be about 1,000 times more powerful than an atomic bomb (opinions vary).
Wasn’t North Korea supposed be
giving up its nuclear bomb program, you ask? Didn’t it sign a treaty with the
United States to suspend construction of nuclear weapons reactors in 1994? And
after it backed out of that agreement, didn’t it once again declare in 2007
that it was shutting down its main nuclear reactor as a result of multinational
talks, ushering in new relations with the US? That one lasted until 2009, when
the North Koreans began testing missiles that could carry nuclear warheads.
As recently as 2012, we were still
dancing with Pyongyang, hoping for a deal to suspend uranium enrichment in
return for much needed food aid (uranium isn’t very edible) and more normalized
relations. More long-range missile tests put an end to that dance. And this
week’s underground test shows that Kim Jong-un is unabashedly determined to
play with nuclear toys.
A couple of takeaways here: Crazy
regimes who have the ability to develop nuclear weapons won’t stop until they
do. And deals and understandings to thwart them are worth less than the paper
they are printed on.
Analysts are beginning to assess
what this means for our newly inked agreement with Iran. The Obama
administration said for years that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” but
then proceeded to accept one anyway. The Iran deal released tons of frozen
assets and opened the door for Russia to flood the Middle East with more
weapons now that sanctions are lifted while Iran is largely allowed to
self-monitor its dubious promise to keep uranium enrichment to levels used only
for nuclear energy, not for weapons.
It didn’t take long for a test of
the framework. Iran has been shooting off long range missiles, including one
that came dangerously close to a U.S. aircraft carrier. The White House was
prepared to slap some sanctions on Tehran but, quickly changed course under the
apparent pretense that damaging President Hassan Rouhani wasn’t in our best
interest when worse hardliners are sniping at his heels.
The problem for the U.S. is our
lack of credibility when it comes to standing up and enforcing our stated
interests, epitomized by President Obama’s pathetic “red line” warning against
Syrian chemical weapons, a transgression now going into its third unpunished
year. The coalition that reached the Iran deal has no real interest in
enforcing red lines or re-imposing sanctions if inspectors somehow manage to
stumble across a violation of the nuclear deal, and Tehran has to be very
closely studying how the U.S., the U.N. and NATO react to North Korea’s openly
flaunting its nuclear weapons. Admittedly, options are limited.
It may fall to Russia’s Putin to
make a difference. Vladimir Putin has visited North Korea and in November sent
a military delegation to conduct high-ranking talks about mutual interest. In
2012 Putin forgave billions in North Korean debt in order to foster better
ties. But the possible H bomb is a game changer.
Russian officials have expressed
grave concern. "Such actions are fraught
with further aggravation of the situation on the Korean peninsula,
which is anyway marked by very high potential of military
and political confrontation," said foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria
Zakharova, according to the Moscow Times.
If Russia has a
chance to play the good guy here, it can do so for its own interest, exerting
global influence, upstaging the U.S. and perhaps diverting attention from its
role supporting Bashar Assad in Syria and its bullying of Ukraine. Polls have
reportedly shown that Russian citizens have a largely unfavorable view of North
Korea, believing that its nuclear ambitions are a menace. Maybe Putin can come
up with the leverage needed to talk some sense into Kim Jong-Un.
Then we’ll still
have to worry about Iran. Analysts are concerned that ties between Tehran and
Pyongyang, and the presence of Iranian scientists at past North Korean tests
and their sharing of missile technology. Iran would not have to conduct its own
tests if it could gain easy access to North Korea’s data. Doing so may not even
be a violation of the vague terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty with Iran,
Thomas Moore, a former non-proliferation expert for the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, told Business Insider.
If the world
continues its tepid reaction to North Korea’s test, it will send a strong
message to an Iran that is likely already biding its time to go nuclear, either
in secret violation of the agreement or when its term is over.
Originally Published by: The Hill
