Fighting
ISIS means difficult, unsatisfying choices.
Our revulsion at the Paris attacks and subsequent Isis
violence was palpable, and our reaction almost universal. We want action.
But are we prepared to accept the difficult truth? The only
answer to brute force by evil and depraved fanatics is brute force by the good
guys -- working with some of the not-so-good guys.
The French wasted no time launching counterstrikes against
ISIS targets in retaliation for the brutal slaughter of over 130 citizens at
multiple Paris locations. At the same time, the Russians, once confirming their
airliner was brought down by a terrorist bomb (Isis took responsibility) have
unleashed some heavy ordnance on targets in Isis’ growing territory. There will
be no shortage of payback for these outrages, and the ones sadly to come, and
the U.S., under increasing pressure to take leadership, will keep up or
increase its own strikes.
This is not a war over territory that can be easily won by
controlling airspace, ports and resources and by depleting the other side’s
troops. It’s a war against an ideology that almost effortlessly gains new
recruits and sympathizers, not just people in bunkers in Iraq and Syria, but
well-educated people in Europe, in peaceful Mideast states and even in the U.S.,
willing to give their lives in a conflict that we can barely understand, let
alone contain.
There are those who believe we are playing right into Isis’s
hands with our response. More bombings create more civilian casualties, and
more angry orphans to join Isis. Our suspicion of and, on the part of some,
hostility toward Muslim refugees in Europe and those trying to enter the U.S.
also creates radicals. The Russians, always with an agenda of their own, stand
to benefit from this too: The refugee problem boosts the fortunes of right-wing
political parties in Europe more inclined to align themselves with Vladimir
Putin, and less concerned about his subjugation of Ukraine.
If chaos is what Isis craves, it is meeting its own
objectives handily. Despite the above concerns, we have no choice but to drop
bombs, and no choice but to carefully scrutinize the refugees to weed out
potential terrorists, despite the notion on the left that it is un-American not
to quickly open our doors.
Leaving us with so few choices, Isis is outmaneuvering us.
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Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Kurds, even Hezbollah in Beirut, Sunni
tribes in Iraq and of course the Russians all have the same interest in
excising this cancer, as do the U.S. and its NATO allies. Can they all join
together in a workable coalition? Do we dare even work with Bashar Assad’s
forces? Or is keeping him in power too bitter a bill to swallow?
It may be precisely because of the odds mounting against
them that Isis operatives have struck or so many times in recent weeks – the
Russian airline, Paris, Beirut -- and may be planning new attacks in Brussels
or the U.S.
According to a New York Times analysis, nearly 1,000 deaths have
caused by Isis outside Iraq and Syria so far in 2015. A former CIA official
told the paper the group is moving beyond inspiring “lone wolf” attacks by
sympathizers, and now seems to have the ability to coordinate its own
operatives.
It remains to be seen if this power could withstand the
disruption of focused attacks by a coordinated coalition of enemies, which
could break off communication from the stronghold in Raqqa, Syria, to its
operatives abroad. Perhaps in the best case scenario, such force reverts Isis
to inspiring the lone wolves again through brutal videotapes and fundamentalist
rantings, and there will be fewer recruits if they see the cause losing steam
rather than ascendant.
But if inciting a global, apocalyptic war is a key goal of
Isis, uniting some of the most disparate powers can achieve exactly the
opposite effect.
To achieve this coalition, western powers must step up their
efforts to convince Arab powers to take an active role, not just cheer-lead,
meaning, troops and logistical support, including use of airspace and bases. It
should not be the job of French or American troops to clean up their
neighborhood for them. A key strategy for Isis is to rely heavily on
fence-sitters to be scared into silence and inaction.
A 2004 manifesto written by the precursor group to Isis,
entitled “The Management of Savagery,” as reported in a recent essay by Scott
Atran and Nefess Hamid in the New York Review of Books, calls for followers to
“diversify and widen the vexation strikes against the Crusader-Zionist enemy in
every place in the Islamic world, and even outside if possible, so as to
disperse the efforts of the alliance of the enemy …”
“diversify and widen the vexation strikes against the Crusader-Zionist enemy in every place in the Islamic world, and even outside if possible, so as to disperse the efforts of the alliance of the enemy …”
Divide and conquer is a time-proven strategy, and it has
made Isis more powerful, but as the conflict grinds on, it may backfire as
disparate enemies have no choice but to work together.
It may be a long, sad and often terrifying conflict, with no
immediate end in sight, and the ideology behind Isis will never be completely
eliminated. But with the right amount of determination and unity a coalition could
disrupt its leadership, disperse its elements, dissuade volunteers and, most
importantly, save thousands of future innocent lives.
Originally Published by: The Hill